Page not found – Lyudmila Leissler https://portlandhome.com Real Estate Tue, 02 Mar 2021 02:52:35 +0000 en-US hourly 1 Matthew Gardner Housing & Economic Update: 02/22/2021 https://portlandhome.com/2021/03/02/matthew-gardner-housing-economic-update-02-22-2021 https://portlandhome.com/2021/03/02/matthew-gardner-housing-economic-update-02-22-2021#respond Tue, 02 Mar 2021 02:52:35 +0000 https://portlandhome.com/?p=697 The post Matthew Gardner Housing & Economic Update: 02/22/2021 appeared first on Lyudmila Leissler.

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2020 Economic & Housing Market Forecast https://portlandhome.com/2020/02/13/2020-economic-housing-market-forecast https://portlandhome.com/2020/02/13/2020-economic-housing-market-forecast#respond Thu, 13 Feb 2020 21:52:33 +0000 https://portlandhome.com/?p=687 The post 2020 Economic & Housing Market Forecast appeared first on Lyudmila Leissler.

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2018 Housing Forecast https://portlandhome.com/2018/02/16/2018-housing-forecast https://portlandhome.com/2018/02/16/2018-housing-forecast#respond Fri, 16 Feb 2018 23:28:10 +0000 https://portlandhome.com/?p=607 The post 2018 Housing Forecast appeared first on Lyudmila Leissler.

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2017 National Housing Price Predictions https://portlandhome.com/2017/02/28/2017-national-housing-price-predictions https://portlandhome.com/2017/02/28/2017-national-housing-price-predictions#respond Tue, 28 Feb 2017 21:32:13 +0000 https://portlandhome.com/?p=569 The post 2017 National Housing Price Predictions appeared first on Lyudmila Leissler.

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Record month for Home Sales in Portland https://portlandhome.com/2015/08/20/record-month-for-home-sales-in-portland https://portlandhome.com/2015/08/20/record-month-for-home-sales-in-portland#respond Thu, 20 Aug 2015 19:26:45 +0000 http://withwre.com/lyudmila/?p=513   July ends up a record month for home sales in Portland metro region Aug 17, 2015, 7:40am PDT Updated: Aug 17, 2015, 10:32am PDT Jon Bell Staff Reporter- Portland Business Journal Email | Twitter If July was any indication, Portland's residential real estate market is as hot as it's ever been. According to the […]

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July ends up a record month for home sales
in Portland metro region

Aug 17, 2015, 7:40am PDT Updated: Aug 17, 2015, 10:32am PDT
Jon Bell
Staff Reporter- Portland Business Journal
Email | Twitter

If July was any indication, Portland's residential real estate market is as hot as it's ever been.
According to the latest Market Action report from the Regional Multiple Listing Service, 3,452
home sales closed in July, a number up nearly 29 percent over the same month last year and an
all-time record for July closings in Portland.

Likewise, the region's 3,494 pending sales, though 3 percent below those in June, were up nearly
25 percent over July 2014 and the most pending July sales the region has scene since 2005. July
also saw inventory tick up slightly to 1.7 months, with the total market time creeping up to 45 days.

The average home price rose just over 6 percent from last year from $331,400 to $351,600, while
the median price was up to $304,900 from $284,900 last year.

Israel Hill, managing broker of John L. Scott Real Estate’s Northeast Portland office, said sellers
with homes in good shape and in desirable areas are having little trouble unloading their homes —
and quickly.

“If sellers are market ready and priced right on day one, they will sell the first weekend," he said.
"Forty-nine percent of homes are selling within the first 30 days. The good news is there is a
second chance for homebuyers to find a home by looking at homes that don’t sell the first week,
but those homes often need TLC or are priced over market value.“

How long the market will continue to hustle at its current pace is difficult to say, but Lennox Scott,
chairman and CEO of John L. Scott, said that there will likely be a seasonal drop-off in new listings
just around the corner.

“If you’re looking to purchase a home, the next two-and-a-half months will be critical," he said.
"New listings coming on the market historically drop 50 percent over the winter when compared to
spring and summer.”

Jon covers real estate for the Portland Business Journal. Sign up for his daily newsletter
to hear about new projects and get behind-the-scenes looks at Portland's rapidly
changing built environment.

 

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Homes are sold at the highest $$, ever https://portlandhome.com/2015/08/06/homes-are-sold-at-the-highest-ever https://portlandhome.com/2015/08/06/homes-are-sold-at-the-highest-ever#respond Thu, 06 Aug 2015 00:22:45 +0000 http://withwre.com/lyudmila/?p=509 Homes are officially being sold at the highest prices, ever Existing-home sales also reach highest pace in 8 years Ben Lane July 22, 2015 Thanks to rising demand and shrinking supply, the median existing-home price for all housing types reached an all-time high in June. According to the latest data from the National Association of […]

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Homes are officially being sold at the highest prices, ever

Existing-home sales also reach highest pace in 8 years

Ben Lane
July 22, 2015

Thanks to rising demand and shrinking supply, the median existing-home price for all housing types reached
an all-time high in June.

According to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors, the median existing-homes sales
price rose to $236,400, which exceeds the previous peak median sales price set in July 2006 of $230,400.

June’s total also rose 6.5% above June 2014.

In May, the median existing-home price for all housing types was $228,700, which was 7.9% above May
2014.

That marked the 39th consecutive month of year-over-year price gains, making June the 40th straight month
of year-over-year price gains.

Despite record prices, existing-home sales also reached their highest pace in more than eight years.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes,
condominiums and co-ops, increased 3.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.49 million in June from a
downwardly revised 5.32 million in May.

Sales are now at their highest pace since February 2007 (5.79 million), have increased year-over-year for nine
consecutive months and are 9.6% above a year ago (5.01 million).

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said that buoyed by June's solid gain in closings, this year's spring
buying season has been the strongest since the crisis began.

"Buyers have come back in force, leading to the strongest past two months in sales since early 2007," Yun
said. "This wave of demand is being fueled by a year-plus of steady job growth and an improving economy
that's giving more households the financial wherewithal and incentive to buy."

According to NAR’s report, total housing inventory at the end of June rose slightly by 0.9% to 2.30 million
existing homes available for sale, which is is 0.4% higher than the same time period a year ago (2.29 million).

Unsold inventory is at a 5.0-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 5.1 months in May.

"Limited inventory amidst strong demand continues to push home prices higher, leading to declining
affordability for prospective buyers," said Yun. "Local officials in recent years have rightly authorized permits
for new apartment construction, but more needs to be done for condominiums and single-family homes."

According to NAR’s report, the percent share of first-time buyers fell to 30% in June from 32% in May, but
remained at or above 30% for the fourth consecutive month.

One year ago, first-time buyers represented 28% of all buyers.

NAR President Chris Polychron said that Realtors are reporting “drastic imbalances” of supply in relation to
demand in many metro areas — especially in the West.

"The demand for buying has really heated up this summer, leading to multiple bidders and homes selling at or
above asking price," Polychron said. "Furthermore, tight inventory conditions are being exacerbated by the
fact that some homeowners are hesitant to sell because they're not optimistic they'll have adequate time to find
an affordable property to move into."

All-cash sales dropped to the lowest share since December 2009, reaching just 22% of transactions in June,
down from 24% in May and 32% a year ago.

Individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 12% of homes in June (14% in May) — the
lowest since August 2014 (also 12%) and down from 16% in June 2014.

Distressed sales, which are foreclosures and short sales, fell to 8% in June (matching an August 2014 low)
from 10% in May, and are below the 11% share a year ago.

According to NAR’s data, 6% of June sales were foreclosures and 2% were short sales. Foreclosures sold for
an average discount of 15% below market value in June (unchanged from May), while short sales were
discounted 18% (16% in May).

NAR’s report also showed that single-family home sales increased 2.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate
of 4.84 million in June from 4.71 million in May, and are now 9.8% above the 4.41 million pace a year ago.

The median existing single-family home price was $237,700 in June, up 6.6% from June 2014 and also
surpassing the peak median sales price set in July 2006 ($230,900).

Existing condominium and co-op sales rose 6.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 650,000 units in June
from 610,000 units in May, up 8.3% from June 2014 (600,000 units) and the highest pace since May 2007
(680,000 units).

The median existing condo price was $226,500 in June, which is 5.5% above a year ago and the highest since
August 2007 ($229,200).

"June sales were also likely propelled by the spring's initial phase of rising mortgage rates, which usually
prods some prospective buyers to buy now rather than wait until later when borrowing costs could be higher,"
Yun concluded.

7/22/2015 9:00 AM

Ben Lane is a reporter for HousingWire. Previously, he worked for TownSquareBuzz, a hyper-local news
service. He is a graduate of University of North Texas.

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No Housing Bubble in Sight – For Now https://portlandhome.com/2015/07/03/no-housing-bubble-in-sight-for-now https://portlandhome.com/2015/07/03/no-housing-bubble-in-sight-for-now#respond Fri, 03 Jul 2015 01:12:46 +0000 http://withwre.com/lyudmila/?p=505 No Housing Bubble in Sight – For Now Posted in Market News by Matthew Gardner   Exactly 10-years ago this month, Alan Greenspan was asked if he had any concerns regarding the housing market. At that time, he emphasized that he saw no sign of a nationwide housing bubble, but he did have concerns over […]

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No Housing Bubble in Sight – For Now

Posted in Market News by Matthew Gardner
 

Exactly 10-years ago this month, Alan Greenspan was asked if he had any concerns regarding the housing market. At that time, he emphasized that he saw no sign of a nationwide housing bubble, but he did have concerns over "froth" in the market and pointed to a big increase in the purchase of investment properties — particularly in second homes. As a result, he said, there are "a lot of local bubbles" around the country, but not at a national level.

As we are all very much aware, he, along with many other esteemed economists, was incorrect in his prediction that there was no national housing bubble in sight.

So here we are, a decade later, and some are starting to suggest that we are on the verge of another “bubble” bursting due to an overheated housing market. I’m often asked if there is any truth to this, and my response is no, I don’t believe there is a national bubble on the horizon. And here are the reasons why:

 

1. The flippers have left the building – in as much as it causes me untold angst to see the resurgence of reality TV programs espousing the wonders of house flipping, the country has seen a marked slowdown in this type of business. Why? Well one reason is that the number of foreclosed homes continues to drop. Foreclosures are the preferred property type for flippers, as margins can be significantly higher.

Given that there is less distressed inventory, it’s not surprising that homes purchased with the intent to “flip” have declined nationwide. Data supplied by RealtyTrac suggests that the percentage of homes that were bought with the intent to “flip” has dropped from a peak of 6.7 percent at the beginning of 2014 to 4 percent today, and I believe that this share will continue to decline, signifying a more normalized market.

 

2. Lending standards remain very stringent – Banks actually did learn a lesson from the collapse of the housing market and remain wary, and because of this, qualifying for a mortgage remains difficult. For example, in April of this year, the average FICO score required for an approved conventional home loan was 756 with a 19 percent down payment. The average FICO score for someone who was denied a loan (with an average down payment of 17 percent) was very high at 699.

Even low down payment programs (i.e. FHA loans) that have less stringent FICO requirements (686 for FHA loans approved in April) are still high enough as to not cause me concern when I think about these borrrower's ability to handle their mortgage obligations.

To further support this view, there are several components of the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act that provide substantial safeguards when it comes to irresponsible lending practices, such as requiring lenders– through the qualified mortgage rule – to ensure a borrower’s ability to repay.

 

3. Home prices are up, but not to pre-bubble levels – here I looked at data provided by S&P Case Shiller index which is a useful resource because it calculates the increase/decrease in value of the same house over time, rather than just the make-up of sales during a specific time period. At the national level, the bursting of the housing bubble led to a 27 percent drop in the index.  The index has risen back up but is still 9 percent below the prior peak.

 

4. Interest rates are going to (eventually) start to rise – and this will take some of the heat out of the market. Now, there are some who will say that any increase in mortgage rates will negatively impact the housing market, but I don’t agree. Although it is true that an increase in rates does decrease buying power, the naysayers are ignoring the fact that we are in a growing economy. The growth in employment, and the subsequent drop in the unemployment rate, will lead to wage growth, and increasing incomes will take some of the sting out of any rate increase.

 

Given all of these points, I do not see the risk of a national “housing bubble” anywhere in the foreseeable future; however, I do think we are seeing localized “froth” in some markets. Watch for my next blog post where I will discuss this further.

 

 

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has over 25 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K. 

 

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Price & Time Since the Peak https://portlandhome.com/2015/03/16/price-time-since-the-peak https://portlandhome.com/2015/03/16/price-time-since-the-peak#respond Mon, 16 Mar 2015 23:11:53 +0000 http://withwre.com/lyudmila/?p=497   Below you will see a very interesting chart that shows the % of value reduction from 2007 to today by the individual states. Oregon appears to still be down 8.7% from 2007. Considering we were one of the last states to see a drop in values, we most likely will have to see another […]

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Below you will see a very interesting chart that shows the % of value reduction from 2007 to today by the individual states. Oregon appears to still be down 8.7% from 2007. Considering we were one of the last states to see a drop in values, we most likely will have to see another year or two to have full recovery. As a comparison, Nevada and Arizona are still down as much as 35%

 

 

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Home prices keep rising.. https://portlandhome.com/2014/12/08/home-prices-keep-rising https://portlandhome.com/2014/12/08/home-prices-keep-rising#respond Mon, 08 Dec 2014 20:18:24 +0000 http://withwre.com/lyudmila/?p=371 Home prices keep rising, but rate of increase slackens   (Curious about your local area? Please visit my website for the latest market trend graph here )   WASHINGTON — U.S. home prices rose at a faster year-over-year pace in October than in September, snapping a seven-month slowdown. And in the Portland-Vancouver area, they rose […]

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Home prices keep rising, but rate of increase slackens
 

(Curious about your local area? Please visit my website for the latest market trend graph here )
 

WASHINGTON — U.S. home prices rose at a faster year-over-year pace in October than in September, snapping a seven-month slowdown. And in the Portland-Vancouver area, they rose a little faster still.

Real estate data provider CoreLogic said Tuesday that prices increased 6.1 percent in October compared with 12 months earlier. That was up from September's year-over-year increase of 5.6 percent.

Still, home values are rising more slowly than they were earlier this year, when 12-month gains were averaging nearly double their current pace.

In the Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro area, CoreLogic reported that home prices rose 7.7 percent on an annualized basis in October — but declined 0.2 percent from September.

The price momentum began to tail off in the middle of the year as home values in more cities and states neared the record highs last seen shortly before the Great Recession began in late 2007.

Higher prices have reduced affordability, especially because the incomes of many would-be buyers have yet to match their pre-recession levels. Lending standards also remain comparably tight.

Previous price increases led investors to pull back from the home market, and first-time buyers have yet to fill the void created by their departure.

Price growth will likely remain mild as a result, CoreLogic said. The firm projects that home values will rise 5.1 percent over the next 12 months. Roughly half the country's homes will match or surpass their pre-recession prices by mid-2015, it predicts.

Every state reported a price gain in October. CoreLogic said prices reached new highs in Colorado, Louisiana, Nebraska, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas and Wyoming. In 27 states, home values are within 10 percent of their previous peaks.

There are still pockets of the country — including parts of Texas, Seattle and Denver — where prices are rising faster than in the rest of the country because of their relatively strong job markets, incomes and home prices, said Sam Khater, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic.

Other real estate companies have forecast a sharper slowdown in price gains next year.

Zillow, the online home marketplace, released estimated Tuesday that home values will rise a mere 2.5 percent nationwide in 2015. That slowdown should ultimately help bring more buyers into the market and increase sales, said Stan Humphries, Zillow's chief economist.

-The Associated Press (Oregonian)

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Can new-fangled mortgages finance Portland’s tiny-home boom? https://portlandhome.com/2014/04/16/can-new-fangled-mortgages-finance-portlands-tiny-home-boom https://portlandhome.com/2014/04/16/can-new-fangled-mortgages-finance-portlands-tiny-home-boom#respond Wed, 16 Apr 2014 01:10:36 +0000 http://withwre.com/lyudmila/?p=335 Posted by Michael Andersen (News Editor) on April 8th, 2014 at 4:18 pm   Portland's enthusiasm for building small and tiny homes has been so abrupt, so unusual and so locally unique that the home mortgage industry hasn't figured out how to take advantage of it. But people in both government and real estate who […]

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Posted by Michael Andersen (News Editor) on April 8th, 2014 at 4:18 pm

 

Portland's enthusiasm for building small and tiny homes has been so abrupt, so unusual and so locally unique that the home mortgage industry hasn't figured out how to take advantage of it.

But people in both government and real estate who see accessory dwelling units as a boon for affordable density in bike-friendly, walkable parts of town are trying to help lenders catch up. And there are signs that it's working.

As we reported last month, Portlanders are responding to the surging demand for local housing by building and/or permitting hundreds of accessory dwelling units. One in 10 new homes in some inner north and Northeast neighborhoods is an ADU, a city specialist says.

 

This is the latest part of a story we've been covering here on BikePortland for years: the ways Portland can keep creating the proximity that makes biking pleasant not just to high-rise dwellers but to those who prefer freestanding homes.

Portlanders, city data show, have taken the problem into their own hands. And yards.

ADU permits per year east of the hills and west of I-205 are up 400% since 2009.
(Source: Portland Bureau of Planning and Sustainability.)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

(read more…)

The Real Estate Beat is made possible by real estate broker Lyudmila Leissler of Portlandia Home/Windermere Real Estate.

Real Estate Beat is sponsored by Portlandia Home

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